The housing market is “dynamic,” meaning it is always changing. Inventory levels rise and fall, affordability ebbs and flows, and property prices rise – and rarely fall.

There are a few legitimate reasons to hold off purchasing a home. If your employment is uncertain, you need time to save for the down payment, or if you are likely to relocate geographically in the next year or two. If this is your situation, I would advise you to sit tight, save your money, and work on your credit score if there are things to address.

However, if you have the desire and ability to purchase a home now but are waiting for interest rates or home prices to drop, I advise you to reconsider. You are falling behind daily, and you will never catch up. Metaphorically, you are waiting for the stream to slow or stop so you can catch the floating stick. It’s just not possible.

Home prices have historically increased year over year, except the anomaly following the 2007 to 2010 downturn. That downturn was caused by unique circumstances as dramatically documented in the 2015 movie The Big Short. (It’s worth watching if you haven’t seen it.) The mortgage industry has since tightened underwriting polices to ensure that can’t happen again.

Here is the reason not to wait:

Home prices are projected to increase nationally by 3.1% over the next year, and Florida is projected to increase even more. With an average home price of $402,000, that equates to $12,462 over 12 months, or $1,038 per month. If mortgage rates were to drop 2% from current levels, the monthly payment savings would be less than half the monthly home price increase. One step forward and two steps back, which is why you will never win by waiting. You can’t catch the market.

To demonstrate this point I created this interactive spreadsheet. I encourage you to test drive it.

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